This is my prediction worksheet. According to this, Trump can take all toss ups, and Pennsylvania, and Biden will still have 270.
You don’t like it? Here, take this spreadsheet and create your own.
This is my prediction worksheet. According to this, Trump can take all toss ups, and Pennsylvania, and Biden will still have 270.
You don’t like it? Here, take this spreadsheet and create your own.
When most Trump supporters, and some non-supporters, argue that just like 2016, all polls are fake news and Trump is going to win “bigly” again, they forget to look at one simple fact — Trump’s victory in 2016 was almost a fluke. If 40,000 voters in a country of 325 million people had changed their mind, he would have lost the election.
Let’s get down to brass tacks. The three states where Trump’s victory margins were the lowest were Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (0.22%, 0.72%, and 0.76% of total vote respectively). This resulted in a switch of 46 electoral votes, without which Trump would have had 258 electoral votes and would have lost the election. The total number of votes that made up the above-mentioned victory margins across three states was 77,744. This means that if a little over half of these voters had switched sides, we would have seen a completely different political landscape in the country. That is, Hillary Clinton would have been president.
Following are the raw numbers that make up the above calculations:
You can get the raw data from Federal Election Commission’s website yourself in the form of a spreadsheet by clicking here, and play with the numbers yourself.
Now what are your take aways from this data? Mine are as follows: